How to Interpret The Numbers As The Vancouver Housing Market Cools
The “wait and see” approach many buyers had been employing through 2018 appears to be transferring over to sellers in this cooling market. As for fear from last month that supply will continue to outweigh demand, November showed a 29% decrease in newly listed properties on the MLS, compared to October. However, the slowing of new listings has not been quite enough to drastically impact overall sales figures.
This month can be summarized in one word: low. The Greater Vancouver market is showing a 42.5% decrease in sales compared to November 2017, and a 18.2% decrease in sales compared to the previous month (October). Overall, the totalling of 1,608 home sales for November make it the lowest sales month since 2008.
What Goes Up Must Come Down
Coming off record high sales figures and property evaluations, we’re now clearly experiencing an edging down. But the effects appear more dramatic on sales numbers than property evaluations themselves. Across property types, home prices have declined between 4-6% over the last six months, depending on property type.
"Sales to Active" listing ratios (see chart below) have also decreased from last month, in line with overall home prices lowering. Detached homes are feeling the most pressure, but it’s interesting to note a steady decline hasn’t been shown for any property type across the last three months.
Potential For An Active Spring Season Means Buyers Should Not Take December Off
While the overall number of properties being sold appears far lower than we’ve experienced recently, it will be crucial to see how much loss can be recouped as we move into 2019, and a typically more active spring market. For Vancouver it’s important to keep in mind, while we’re seeing declines, our trends are moving down towards more normal market activity numbers. And with the current state of our market being advantageous for buyers, the coming spring could be a very interesting quarter. Today the Bank of Canada opted to maintained the current interest rate, with the next rate announcement set for January 9th 2019. If you've been pre-approved, you'll want to act now. There is a lot of product out on the market, priced for the current conditions.
Sellers Need To Assess The Competition and Consider Most Active Price Bands
We haven’t flat lined - sales are happening, strategically. Select neighbourhoods on Vancouver’s Eastside and Westside still have price bands reporting sales to active ratios of 67-200%(*). What’s important to remember is that price, location and condition all play crucial roles in achieving a sale, as well as having up to date sales data in your area to consult. Pricing a property sharply, and investing in the display value of your home are necessary steps to ensure your home will stand out to buyers when they have a multitude of options to choose from. Curious to see where you’re home falls? Feel free to reach out to get a complimentary evaluation and discuss these statistics.
*This occurs when homes listed in a previous month sell within the data collected for our current month